June 11, 2025 — Belly of the Beast
Trump proclaimed a travel ban last week that fully prohibits the entry to the U.S. of nationals from 12 countries and partially restricts nationals of seven other countries, including Cuba.
Cuba is on the partially restricted list along with Burundi, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan and Venezuela. The fully restricted countries are: Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.
What this means for Cuba:
The ban prohibits Cuban nationals from entering the U.S. as immigrants with the exception of immediate family and individuals whose entry “would serve a United States national interest.” It also suspends the entry into the U.S. of nonimmigrants on B-1, B‑2, B-1/B-2, F, M, or J visas. These visa categories are used by people traveling to the U.S. for tourism, business, education and cultural and research exchanges.
The proclamation also orders consular officers to limit the length of time that a nonimmigrant visa is valid for nationals of Cuba “to the extent permitted by law.”
This is bad news for Cubans, but it could have been worse. Leaked reports weeks ago indicated Cuba would be on a “red list” that included the countries facing a total prohibition of travel.
Why it matters:
The travel ban drives a wedge between Cuban families on both sides of the Florida Straits. Fewer Cubans will be able to travel back and forth between the two countries, which could impact the flow of cash and goods coming to the island on planes — a lifeline for many Cuban households.
The travel ban is also one more blow to bilateral collaboration. During the Obama opening with Cuba, the two countries rapidly expanded cooperation in areas like science, the environment, sports and culture. Those mutually beneficial exchanges were greatly reduced under both Trump and Biden (see our article on how sanctions under Biden hindered biotech collaboration).
Will the travel ban slow migration?
There is no evidence the ban on Cuba will serve its stated purpose of protecting the United States from “foreign terrorists and other public safety threats.” Nor is there evidence it will hinder migration to the United States.
Ironically, U.S. sanctions and other punitive measures on Cuba under both Trump and Biden have fueled migration. Over the past five years, Cuba has experienced its biggest emigration wave in history. More than 10% of the population has left the island, with most people going to the U.S.
The (shaky) reasoning
The Trump administration provided the following reasons to justify the partial travel ban on Cuba:
- Cuba sponsors terrorism
- Cuba does not fully cooperate with the U.S. on law enforcement
- Cuba has historically refused to accept the deportation of its nationals from the U.S.
- Non-immigrant Cubans frequently overstay their visas
Let’s break these down…
1. Does Cuba sponsor terrorism? The “consensus position” for decades in the U.S. intelligence community is that Cuba does not sponsor terrorism. When the outgoing Biden administration started to remove Cuba from the U.S. government’s State Sponsors of Terrorism (SSOT) list in January, a State Department spokesperson confirmed there was “no credible evidence” to support the designation. The irony is Cuba has long been a victim of terrorist attacks carried out by Cuban Americans operating from U.S. soil. One such group, Omega 7, was once considered by the FBI to be the most dangerous terrorist organization in the United States. Some of these terrorists and their financial backers in the U.S. had ties to disgraced former Senator Bob Menendez, a longtime ally of Joe Biden (see more in our documentary Hardliner on the Hudson). Fellow Cuban-American hardliner Marco Rubio helped ensure Cuba would remain on the SSOT list after he was named secretary of state. The designation has had a devastating impact on Cuba’s economy, cutting the island off from international trade, banking, credit and investment.
2. Does Cuba not fully cooperate in law enforcement efforts? Cuba has a long history of cooperating with the U.S. on law enforcement issues even when relations between the two countries have been tense. For example, the two countries have long worked together to stop drug trafficking (see our interview with a U.S. Coast Guard official about U.S.-Cuba cooperation on security matters). Biden took Cuba off the list of countries “not fully cooperating” on counterterrorism efforts – citing ongoing law enforcement cooperation, including on counterterrorism – only for Trump to reverse the decision.
3. Does Cuba not accept deportees? Cuba recently accepted a deportation flight of 130 people from the United States. It was the fifth deportation flight since the beginning of the year. Cuba has continued to receive monthly deportation flights in line with U.S.-Cuba migration accords, even though the Trump administration has abandoned the migration talks with Cuban authorities that had occurred regularly under Biden. In an interview with Politico, Senior Cuban diplomat Johana Tablada said that Marco Rubio’s State Department “is not interested in having conversations with Cuba,” and that she and Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío were snubbed by U.S. officials when they visited Washington.
4. Overstay rates. Many Cubans do overstay their visas and end up living in the United States because U.S. law and policy makes doing so relatively easy. Cubans have historically enjoyed privileges no other immigrant community has in the United States thanks to the 1966 Cuban Adjustment Act, which allows Cubans who enter the U.S. legally to become U.S. residents a year and a day after their arrival. As a result, many Cubans who arrived in the U.S. through non-immigrant visas overstay because they know they have a legal pathway to residency as long as they remain in the U.S. for 366 days. Trump’s crackdown on non-immigrant travel during his first term further incentivized Cubans to overstay their visas since it became more difficult for them to come and go without first becoming U.S. residents.
